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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2108/126

Title: Uncertainty about children’s survival and fertility: a test using Indian microdata
Authors: Atella, Vincenzo
Rosati, Furio Camillo
Issue Date: May-1999
Publisher: CEIS
Series/Report no.: Quaderni CEIS; 118
Abstract: In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children’s survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children’s survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children’s death is not the only link between fertility decision and children’s mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2108/126
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